Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Marsh Creek
Backups/savers: 5-Highly Desirable; 7-Abitmischievous.
Forecast: Marsh Creek has done some very good work leading up to his racing debut, though it can’t be said he’s bred for grass. Nonetheless, here he is, in a turf sprint from the rail, in a field that really didn’t come up strong. If this grandson of the top class mare Indian Blessing can run, he can run, regardless of the surface, and with the barn’s “go-to” jockey J. Hernandez taking the call this sophomore son of Arrogate looks like a very live item. We suspect that if he breaks cleanly, he’ll be hard to beat.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Slew’s Joy; 5-Established.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Slew’s Joy is a first-off-the-claim play for M. Glatt (24% with this angle) and also is making his first start as a gelding. Taken for $16,000 and returning for $10,000, the son of Slew’s Tiznow doesn’t have a healthy pattern, but on the barn switch alone probably deserves top billing in a weak affair. Established is comfortably drawn outside, drops to his lowest level ever, and is a three time winner over the local dirt track. Low percentage connections notwithstanding, the veteran gelding is the one to fear most.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-All That Glory; 7-Tees Touch (GB); 5-Cathal (Ire).
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: All That Glory, a solid runner-up over this course and distance in a similar maiden grass dash for older horses, probably won’t have to improve much at all to graduate today. The T. Yakteen-trained colt just earned a career top speed figure that points him out as strictly the one to beat. A steady, strong work tab since raced is another plus. Tees Touch (GB) and Cathal (Ire) are Irish invaders making their U.S. debuts after displaying some promise during their juvenile campaigns. The former, a first time gelding trained by P. D’Amato, was 40-1 in his only start but ran quite well to be second before being privately purchased and imported. The latter, a good runner-up in a 14 runner affair while almost four lengths clear of the rest in a representative race at Dundalk in November, should be fit enough for J. Sadler to at least give a good account of himself.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Rhino
Backups/savers: 6-Mystic Spirit.
Forecast: Rhino is far from trustworthy but he’s back on dirt today and may appreciate the surface switch. Beaten as the favorite in both of his recent races following a layoff without no visible excuses, the son of Texas Ryano projects as the logical pacesetter and may be able to stay the course in a field lacking in late speed. Though a likely winner, he offers no value at 8/5 on the morning line.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Halfway Line (GB); 7-Mystification.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Here’s a challenging turf miler for first level allowance older horses. Use as many as your budget allows. Halfway Line (GB) hasn’t been particularly impressive in his a.m. breezes since arriving from France, but he’s form overseas is pretty good, so if he brings his best stuff in his U. S. debut he should be very competitive. He gets Lasix and A. Fresu and figures to be doing his best work late. Mystification is lightly raced with room to improve and finished a solid third under these conditions last month after making the pace under pressure throughout. His only win as accomplished as the controlling speed, so we suspect that strategy will be employed again today.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Show Card; 1-Scary Fast Ride.
Backups/savers:
Forecast: Show Card looks like a short price in this first level allowance sprint. She’s drawn cozily outside, earned a career top speed figure in her recent maiden score, and likely will continue to improve as she gains added experience for B. Baffert. Scary Fast Ride returns to the main track after failing to negotiate the Hillside Course in her most recent outing. With two wins and a second in three career outings over the local main dirt track, the S. McCarthy-trained mare seems likely to return to her best form today. She’s not a particularly quick type leaving the gate, though, so she’ll have to avoid trouble from her rail draw.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Alluring
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Alluring had a tough beat in a similar Hillside sprint for sophomore fillies last month but we’re expecting the talented sprinter to break through today in this year’s edition of the Senorita S.-G3. She employs an effective second flight, stalking style, retains regular pilot U. Rispoli, and shows speed figures that are gradually rising. The R. Mandella-trained daughter of Ghostzapper is ready for a stakes win, and at 3-1 on the morning line offers a reasonable gamble and an attractive rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: Bag’s Gold; 5-Crowining Gold
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Bag’s Gold has lacked punch when it’s been needed the most in recent races, so we’re not sure he can be counted on but on pure form the Vronsky gelding should be able to handle this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming assignment. His recent numbers have been solid, so we’ll put him on top but with trepidation. Crowning Gold is a strong fit at this level and is re-equipped with blinkers, so we’ll toss him in as well.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 7-Big Summer; 10-Just Nails.
Backups/savers: 5-Excelia (Ire).
Forecast: Big Summer usually prefers to finish second or third (10 times) rather than win (four times), but this is a field the veteran mare can beat with one of her better efforts if she’s ready in her comeback. The barn has been ice cold all year and its record with layoff runners is weak, so there are question marks. Still, the daughter of Mr. Big is a three time winner over the local turf course and her work tab should have her plenty fit. Just Nails shows the route-to-sprint angle that always catches the eye and a repeat of her race before last – she was beaten a nose at this distance over the flat course while earning a career top number – makes here strictly the one to beat.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 5-Lincoln Hawk (Ire) ; 9-City Exile (GB).
Backups/savers: 6-Reckless Spirit.; 1-Barely Functional.
Forecast: Lincoln Hawk (Ire) was badly victimized by the race shape (slow early, fast late) and could make no impression when unplaced in a similar spot over 10 furlongs last time out. This shortening to a mile should help produced more pace, so this Irish-bred gelding has a chance to improve big time at a good price (he’s 8-1 on the morning line). City Exile (GB), freshened since early February, likes to lag and then blast home and like our top pick can be dangerous if he can get some help up front.
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