Points, points, points.
Not to belabor the point, but the point is that a horse needs enough points in order to secure a berth in the 20-horse starting gate at this year’s 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4.
The final three races offering 100-50-25-15-20 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby will be contested this Saturday (April 6): the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, the Grade I Santa Anita Derby and the Grade II Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. All three are 1 1/8-mile affairs.
And then on April 13, Keeneland’s Grade III Lexington Stakes will be final race with Kentucky Derby points up for grabs on a 20-10-6-4-2 basis.
$1 MILLION BLUE GRASS STAKES
This year’s 100th running of the Blue Grass Stakes brings together a group of 11 to clash at 1 1/8 miles.
I’m going to take a shot and make Just a Touch my top pick. A son of 2018 Triple Crown winner and red-hot sire Justify, Just a Touch has a win and a second from two career starts. The highly regarded colt, trained by Brad Cox, splashed home to a 4 1/4-length win vs. Fair Grounds maidens in a six-furlong sprint on a sloppy track Jan. 27.
Just a Touch then finished second to Deterministic (the likely favorite in Saturday’s Wood Memorial) in Aqueduct’s Grade III Gotham Stakes at one mile March 2. The Gotham also was run on a sloppy strip.
What if Just a Touch is more than just a touch better on a dry track? If he is, his Blue Grass opponents might be in trouble.
Coming off a win in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes, which was decided on a sloppy Fair Grounds oval Feb. 17, Sierra Leone warrants much respect in the Blue Grass. Chad Brown trains the Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt.
In three lifetime starts, Sierra Leone has won twice and lost the Grade II Remsen Stakes by a scant nose to Dornach on a muddy track at Aqueduct.
Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote of Sierra Leone this week: “His ‘wow’ moments are not provided by huge margins and fast speed times, but by an electrifying turn of foot and relentless closing kick.”
Danny Gargan trains Dornach, a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby hero Mage. Dornoch was a pace factor from the beginning in the Remsen. Relinquishing the lead during the stretch run, he found renewed energy in deep stretch to nose out Sierra Leone for the win.
Dornach won the Remsen when benefiting from blatant inside speed bias, but he deserved credit for being so game in the lane to come back and narrowly get the win after having yielded the advantage to Sierra Leone.
In Dornach’s most recent start, the Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt won Gulfstream’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes in front-running fashion by 1 3/4 lengths. It was a victory accomplished in a workmanlike manner. The Fountain of Youth was significantly weakened due to the scratches of Merit, Victory Avenue, Locked and Speak Easy.
Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher trains Be You. The Kentucky-bred Curlin colt lost the first four races of his career, then put it all together to win a seven-furlong maiden contest by 2 1/2 lengths on March 2. The 96 Beyer for his maiden graduation is the highest figure in the Blue Grass field. That says look out Saturday.
From the rail out, the Blue Grass field consists of Top Conor (15-1 on the morning line), Be You (8-1), Seize the Grey (20-1), Dornoch (3-1), Good Money (20-1), Just a Touch (7-2), Lat Long (30-1), Epic Ride (20-1), Mugatu (30-1), Sierra Leone (2-1) and Encino (12-1).
Below are my Blue Grass Stakes selections:
1. Just a Touch
2. Sierra Leone
3. Dornoch
4. Be You
$750,000 SANTA ANITA DERBY
It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to envision Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert winning another Santa Anita Derby this year.
Baffert is represented in the race this year by Imagination, who is coming off a head victory in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 3.
I installed Imagination as the 8-5 favorite on the Santa Anita Derby morning line. He heads a field of eight.
A Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt, Imagination has not finished worse than second in five career starts. His 96 Beyer Speed Figure in the San Felipe tops the Santa Anita Derby field in that department.
Baffert has won this race a record eight times, as listed below:
2019 Roadster
2015 Dortmund
2011 Midnight Interlude
2009 Pioneerof the Nile
2001 Point Given
1999 General Challenge
1998 Indian Charlie
1996 Cavonnier
Baffert trained Justify, who finished first in the 2018 Santa Anita Derby. However, a March 30 ruling issued by California stewards officially disqualified Justify from his first-place finish in that race.
“The action followed a successful lawsuit filed by Mick Ruis, owner of original runner-up Bolt d’Oro, and a subsequent settlement in which the California Horse Racing Board agreed to waive appeal of the court ruling, order a redistribution of purse money, and pay Ruis $300,000,” BloodHorse’s Dick Downey wrote.
In part, the stewards’ ruling states that the disqualification of Justify is “issued pursuant to an order from the Superior Court of the State of California.” The court ruling held that a positive test for scopolamine required disqualification under racing regulations.
After finishing first in the Santa Anita Derby, Justify went on to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes to become this country’s 13th Triple Crown winner.
From the rail out, the Santa Anita Derby cast is comprised of Curlin’s Kaos (20-1 on the morning line), Tapalo (5-1), Stronghold (5-2), Imagination (8-5), Wynstock (8-1), Tessuto (10-1), Mc Vay (5-1) and E J Won the Cup (15-1).
Below are my Santa Anita Derby selections:
1. Imagination
2. Stronghold
3. Mc Vay
4. Tapalo
Stronghold is coming off a 2 1/2-length win in the Grade III Sunland Park Derby on Feb. 18. Phil D’Amato trains the Kentucky-bred colt by 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper.
Mc Vay, trained by John Shirreffs, is $1.25 million auction purchase. The Kentucky-bred Constitution colt has fired a couple of recent bullets in the a.m. (three furlongs in :36.00 on March 20, five furlongs in :59.00 on March 29) to suggest that, even though he’s a maiden, he should not be taken lightly Saturday. Mc Vay finished third in Imagination’s San Felipe.
John Sadler conditions Tapalo. The New York-bred Tapiture ridgling finished second to Endlessly in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on Feb. 10. Endlessly went on to win Turfway Park’s Grade III Jeff Ruby by four lengths on synthetic March 23.
After running on synthetic footing in the El Camino Real Derby, Tapalo switches back to the dirt Saturday. He has raced on dirt four times, finishing fourth at Los Alamitos last Sept. 24, second at Santa Anita on Oct. 28, then third at Del Mar on Dec. 2 before a victory at Santa Anita on Jan. 12.
Tapalo was one of nine 3-year-olds made eligible to compete in 2024 Triple Crown races with a late $6,000 payment that was due on Monday (April 1).
$750,000 WOOD MEMORIAL
Tuscan Sky is two for two going into the Wood. He returns to New York after a registering a victory in Louisiana.
I have been impressed by Tuscan Sky. He is my choice to win the Wood.
Tuscan Sky proved best by a widening 5 1/4 lengths when unveiled in a six-furlong maiden sprint on a muddy track Jan. 13 at the Big A.
In his next appearance under silks, Tuscan Sky stretched out to 1 1/16 miles and won a Fair Grounds allowance/optional claimer that had just three starters on Feb. 17. It turned into a virtual match race between Tuscan Sky and Nash.
“Usually in match races if a horse outruns his opponents and gets a clear early lead he wins,” Haskin wrote of Tuscan Sky this week. “In this case, however, Tuscan Sky allowed Nash to open a two- to three-length lead early with an opening quarter in :24 and still ran him down to win by two lengths. Nash then came back to romp by 5 1/2 lengths in the one-mile Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn Park.”
Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher trains Tuscan Sky, a Kentucky-bred colt by 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso.
Below are my Wood Memorial selections:
1. Tuscan Sky
2. Deterministic
3. Uncle Heavy
4. Resilience
Deterministic, who like Tuscan Sky is two for two, looks like he might be a special colt. The Kentucky-bred son of Liam’s Map surged late to win a Saratoga maiden race from off the pace at first asking going seven furlongs last summer. He then didn’t start again until winning Aqueduct’s Grade III Gotham Stakes at one mile on a sloppy track March 2 for trainer Christophe Clement.
“All his works have been very good and he’s a very athletic kind of horse -- the most beautiful mover,” Clemente said in NYRA communications’ Wood preview. “He barely touches the round and moves like a cat. He’s good mentally, too.”
Uncle Heavy, trained by Butch Reid Jr., has won three of four career starts. The Pennsylvania-bred Social Inclusion colt is coming off a nose win at 9-1 in Aqueduct’s Grade III Withers Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on a muddy track Feb. 3. Uncle Heavy did have the misfortune to draw the outside post in the field of 13, however.
I see Resilience as a possibility to make some noise in the Wood at a nice price. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, the Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt lost his first three starts prior to an emphatic 4 1/4-length maiden win at Gulfstream Park on New Year’s Day.
After earning his maiden diploma, Resilence ran fourth to Sierra Leone, Track Phantom and Catching Freedom in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 17. Resilience finished 1 3/4 lengths behind Catching Freedom, who subsequently won the Grade II Louisiana Derby.
From the rail out, the Wood entrants are Resilience, El Grande O, Lonesome Boy, Deterministic, Protective, Evening News, Merit, Elysian Meadow, Tuscan Sky, Gettysburg Address, Society Man, Deposition and Uncle Heavy.
THIS WEEK’S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
To say that the “good” Fierceness showed up in Gulfstream Park’s Grade I Florida Derby last Saturday would be putting it mildly. He won in front-running fashion by a record-breaking 13 1/2 lengths. The largest winning margin in the Florida Derby previously had been Empire Maker’s 9 3/4 lengths in 2003.
For Xpressbet.com last week, I wrote: “Which Fierceness are we going to see Saturday? Will it be the Fierceness who was a brilliant Saratoga debut winner and a dominant 6 1/4-length Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victor? Or will it be the Fierceness who lost the Grade I Champagne Stakes by 20 1/4 lengths as a 1-2 favorite and the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths as a 1-5 favorite?
“If the ‘good’ Fierceness shows up in the Florida Derby for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, the Kentucky-bred City of Light colt will be mighty tough to beat. And Fierceness’ sharp recent a.m. rehearsals do seem to suggest there is a good chance that we are going to see the ‘good’ Fierceness this Saturday.”
Yes, Fierceness went out there and annihilated his Florida Derby foes in a performance akin to his big debut win and scintillating BC Juvenile triumph.
As T.D. Thornton of the Thoroughbred Daily News pointed out, Fierceness “had everything his own way [in the Florida Derby] when establishing a measured tempo without having to fight hard for the lead or repulse any serious bids. It’s not Fierceness’ fault the Florida Derby came up soft on paper. But it does mean that the Kentucky Derby will be the colt’s first immersion in the deep end of the divisional pool since he pasted the field in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 6 1/4 lengths.”
For Xpressbet.com last week, I also wrote: “At this time next week I might still be wiping egg off my face. Or maybe it will turn out that I was right to have a high opinion of Forever Young. It all depends on what Forever Young does this Saturday in the Group II UAE Derby.”
As it turned out, Forever Young remained undefeated and kept egg off my face by winning the UAE Derby. He rallied to prevail by two lengths as an odds-on favorite in international betting markets.
Many are going to throw out Forever Young on the first Saturday in May as a result of the abysmal 0-for-19 record by UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby.
Last year, Derma Sotogake won the UAE Derby, then finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby. That tied for the best finish in the Kentucky Derby by a winner of the UAE Derby. China Visit in 2000 likewise ran sixth in the Kentucky Derby after winning the UAE Derby.
Master of Hounds was the runner-up in the 2011 UAE Derby before finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby. That’s been the best finish in the Kentucky Derby by a horse to have competed in the UAE Derby.
There are two main reasons why I think Forever Young might have what it takes to end the UAE Derby’s losing streak in the Kentucky Derby.
First, Forever Young clearly has an abundance of talent. He’s now won all five of his starts while racing in three different countries. Forever Young was three for three last year in Japan. He was the highest-rated dirt 2-year-old in that country’s history. When Forever Young got up in the last jump to win the Group II Saudi Derby by a head in his 2024 debut, many knocked him for running all the way down the stretch on his left lead. But in the UAE Derby, he switched to his right lead with about 400 meters to go and stayed on that lead to the finish.
Second, Forever Young is in the hands of a great trainer. It’s my view that if there’s a trainer who can get the UAE Derby off the Kentucky Derby schneid, it’s Yoshito Yahagi (whose father passed away in Japan just hours before the UAE Derby).
It appeared to me that Forever Young won the UAE Derby rather comfortably with some gas still in the tank. He looked far from knocked out when posing for pictures after the race. I will not be surprised if Forever Young moves further forward in Louisville, especially since the Kentucky Derby has been the target all along. Yahagi excels at having a racehorse peak on the day of a major goal, much like the late, great Charlie Whittingham in this country during his illustrious career.
I remind you that Yahagi showed everyone what he’s capable of doing on the American racing stage during the 2021 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar. He shocked the racing world by winning the BC Distaff with 49-1 longshot Marche Lorraine. Yahagi also won the BC Filly & Mare Turf that year with 4-1 Loves Only You.
In the Saudi Derby, Forever Young’s final time of 1:36.17 for 1,600 meters [about one mile] shattered the track record. The old mark had been 1:37.91 set by Full Flat in the inaugural Saudi Derby in 2020.
Derma Sotagake ran third in the 2023 Saudi Derby, then posted a final time of 1:55.81 when he won the UAE Derby. That was a much faster clocking than Forever Young’s UAE Derby time of 1:57.49.
But I think Forever Young’s time in the UAE Derby might be better than it appears at first glance.
“Forever Young clocked 1:57.89, about an average time for the UAE Derby, but did turn in a strong 24-second final 400 meters,” Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh wrote. “That not only topped the UAE Derby but was faster than any final 400 meters [by any of the runners] in the 2,000-meter [about 1 1/4-mile] Dubai World Cup].”
Forever Young deserves extra credit for winning the UAE Derby despite a wide trip. Additionally, Thornton noted that while the four dirt races on the Dubai World Cup card at Meydan provided “only a limited sample, two of them were blowout wins by speed horses who rode the rail, suggesting that the ground-conceding run by Forever Young could have been against the grain of an inside-favoring track.”
Forever Young did not race with blinkers or goggles, but he did wear “a protective mask,” as the TDN’s Thornton described it.
“Forever Young raced for the first time in face-covering equipment that did not have to be declared at the time of his entry,” Hersh wrote. “Like a set of blinkers but with no cups attached, the headgear, Yahagi said, was intended to mitigate the effect of [dirt] kickback on Forever Young.”
Yahagi said after the UAE Derby that Forever Young won the Saudi Derby even though the Real Steel colt was less than 100%.
“He did not travel well from Japan to Saudi Arabia, so he was not in great condition, but he still performed very well,” Yahagi said. “After traveling from Riyadh to Dubai he improved, and he has so much potential. I always have a lot of confidence in him.”
I, for one, have confidence that master horseman Yahagi is quite capable of having Forever Young ready to run a biggie beneath the historic Twin Spires on May 4.
In terms of my Kentucky Derby Top 10, I had a very difficult time deciding between Fierceness and Forever Young in terms of who I would put at No. 1 this week. I went back and forth, over and over and over, ever since the two stars were triumphant last Saturday.
On the one hand, I am always looking for a 3-year-old who appears to have a good chance of being first or second a furlong from home in the Kentucky Derby, which puts a horse in a prime position to win the roses. In the last 61 Kentucky Derbies, 56 winners have been first or second a furlong out.
I think Fierceness has an excellent chance to be first or second with a furlong to go in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
On the other hand, can Fierceness be trusted to put together back-to-back wins, something he has yet to do in five career starts?
There also is that gaudy 110 Beyer Speed Figure recorded by Fierceness in the Florida Derby. How can I possibly not put him at No. 1 off that? Well, I didn’t have a 3-year-old coming off a 120 Beyer ranked No. 1 going into the 2005 Kentucky Derby.
Bellamy Road went into the 2005 Kentucky Derby off a pair of runaway victories. He won a one-mile allowance race by 15 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park in his 3-year-old debut when receiving a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, then ran off and hid to take Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial by 17 1/2 lengths when credited with a 120 Beyer.
Not surprisingly, off that gigantic Beyer Speed Figure in the Wood, Bellamy Road was sent away as the 5-2 favorite in the Kentucky Derby. But my choice to win that Derby was Closing Argument, who was dismissed in the wagering at 71-1.
Afleet Alex went into that Kentucky Derby off an eight-length win the Grade Arkansas Derby, an effort that produced a 108 Beyer. He was 9-2 in the Kentucky Derby.
Giacomo pulled off a 50-1 upset, closing from 18th in the field of 20 to win by a half-length. Closing Argument, leading with a furlong left to run and continuing in front in the final eighth of a mile until being overtaken by Giacomo in the shadow of the wire, finished second. Afleet Alex ran third. Bellamy Road? He ended up seventh while recording a 90 Beyer Speed Figure, a 30-point drop from the Wood.
Bellamy Road often is cited as an example of a disappointing Kentucky Derby finish by a horse coming off dynamite performance. However, three days after the Kentucky Derby, he was found to have popped a splint in his left front leg, the Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman reported. I think it’s a plausible explanation as to why Bellamy Road did not run better in the Derby. Bellamy Road did not race again until late August, when he finished second to Flower Alley (future sire of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another) in the Travers Stakes, which would be the final start of his career.
Closing Argument’s top Beyer Speed Figure going into the 2005 Kentucky Derby was a 98. Inasmuch as I was bold (or crazy) enough to make Closing Argument my top pick in that Derby against the likes of Bellamy Road, he of the 120 Beyer, and Afleet Alex, he of the 108 Beyer, why not stick with Forever Young as my top pick in this Derby against Fierceness, he of the 110 Beyer?
Thus, I decided to keep Forever Young at No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. Fierceness jumps to No. 2 after being No. 4 last week.
Below is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10:
1. Forever Young
2. Fierceness
3. Sierra Leone
4. Dornoch
5. Catching Freedom
6. Deterministic
7. Just a Touch
8. Honor Marie
9. Mystik Dan
10. Just Steel
Honor Marie, who finished second to Catching Freedom in the Grade II Louisiana Derby, moves onto my Top 10 this week at No. 8.
Just Steel, who ran second to Muth in the Grade II Arkansas Derby, debuts on my Top 10 this week at No. 10.
Timberlake and Hades drop off my Top 10 this week.
Daily Racing Form’s Mary Rampellini reported Tuesday (April 2) that Timberlake will not be running in the Kentucky Derby, according to trainer Brad Cox. Timberlake finished fourth, 6 3/4 lengths behind the victorious Muth, in the Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park last Saturday.
“Based on his performance over the weekend, we are not going to run in the Kentucky Derby,” Cox said of Timberlake. “We are thinking of cutting him back in distance.”
Cox went on to say that Timberlake came out of the Arkansas Derby “in good order, very sound,” but the trainer added that it is felt at this time that running him 1 1/4 miles on May 4 off his Arkansas Derby performance would not be in the colt’s best interest.
Hades finished fifth, 19 3/4 lengths behind dominant victor Fierceness, in the Florida Derby.
DERBY STRIKES UPDATE
I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for past Kentucky Derby winners. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
It’s not until a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes.
Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes. Nevertheless, despite there being a three-strike winner last year, history shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 50) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
One of Mage’s strikes was because he had not won a graded stakes race. Another of Mage’s strikes was for getting passed in the final furlong of the Florida Derby. Mage’s third strike was for not having raced as a 2-year-old.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes. Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
Mage became the first Kentucky Derby winner with three strikes.
Mine That Bird in 2009 had four strikes (Categories 1, 4, 5 and 8).
The strikes for a number of Kentucky Derby candidates who are scheduled to make their next start in the Run for Roses are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Endlessly
Forever Young
ONE STRIKE
Catalytic (Category 2)
Catching Freedom (Category 3)
Fierceness (Category 4)
Honor Marie (Category 3)
Track Phantom (Category 4)
West Saratoga (Category 4)
TWO STRIKES
No More Time (Categories 4 and 5)
Just Steel (Categories 2 and 3)
Grand Mo the First (Categories 2 and 3)
THREE STRIKES
Common Defense (Categories 2, 4 and 5)
T O Password (Categories 1, 2 and 7)
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
As mentioned earlier, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. Again, this is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2023 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING
Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) is being offered this week, with $2 win and exacta wagering available.
Be advised, according to a Churchill Downs press release, betting in Pool 6 closes earlier than usual on Saturday (April 6) at approximately 6 p.m. ET, prior to the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby.
Pool 6 wagering will begin at noon ET on Thursday (April 4).
Eclipse Award winner Fierceness has been tabbed as the 7-2 morning-line favorite in Pool 6 following his 13 1/2-length tour de force in Gulfstream Park’s Grade I Florida Derby last Saturday.
In my opinion, betting on Fierceness at a low price in Pool 6 makes no sense, especially since there are no refunds in future wagering. If he ends up being around 7-2 in Pool 6, I think you are better off waiting to bet on him at whatever price he will be on race day.
Also, even though the “all other 3-year-olds” option is listed at 30-1 on the morning line, wagering on that also seems inadvisable to me. At this point, I really can’t see someone other than one of the 39 individual horses winning this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Grade II Risen Star Stakes winner Sierra Leone is the 6-1 second choice on the Pool 6 morning line. Group II UAE Derby winner Forever Young is next at 10-1.
I have no interest in betting Forever Young at around 10-1. That’s because I made a large wager on him on him at 21-1 in Pool 4 that was conducted in February.
Deterministic won the Grade II Gotham Stakes on March 2. Just a Touch finished second. Deterministic’s Pool 6 morning line is 15-1 compared to Just a Touch’s 30-1. I certainly would be more interested in betting Just a Touch at around 30-1 than Deterministic at around 15-1. But here again I am not inclined to put any money on Just a Touch at odds in the vicinity of 30-1 because I already bet him at about that price in Pool 5. Just a Touch closed at 31-1 in Pool 5.
One horse I am looking at possibly making a very small wager on in Pool 6 is Be You.
Be You recorded a 96 Beyer Speed Figure when winning a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park on March 2. That 96 Beyer is higher than the top figure so far achieved by fellow Blue Grass entrants Sierra Leone, Dornach and Just a Touch. Yet, Be You is listed at 90-1 on the Pool 6 morning line vis-a-vis Sierra Leone’s 6-1, Dornach’s 12-1 and Just a Touch’s 30-1.
Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 6 of the 2024 KDFW:
No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)
1. Be You (90-1)
2. Catalytic (50-1)
3. Catching Freedom (8-1)
4. Common Defense (80-1)
5. Deterministic (15-1)
6. Domestic Product (40-1)
7. Dornoch (12-1)
8. El Grande O (50-1)
9. Encino (50-1)
10. Endlessly (40-1)
11. Epic Ride (60-1)
12. Evening News (99-1)
13. Fierceness (7-2)
14. Forever Young (10-1)
15. Good Money (90-1)
16. Grand Mo the First (99-1)
17. Hades (50-1)
18. Honor Marie (20-1)
19. Just a Touch (30-1)
20. Just Steel (25-1)
21. Lat Long (90-1)
22. Mc Vay (99-1)
23. Merit (99-1)
24. Mystik Dan (30-1)
25. No More Time (90-1)
26. Resilience (99-1)
27. Seize the Grey (50-1)
28. Sierra Leone (6-1)
29. Society (99-1)
30. Stronghold (60-1)
31. T O Password (60-1)
32. Tapalo (90-1)
33. Tessuto (99-1)
34. Timberlake (30-1)
35. Top Conor (80-1)
36. Track Phantom (30-1)
37. Tuscan Sky (30-1)
38. Uncle Heavy (50-1)
39. West Saratoga (60-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Olds (30-1)
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Senor Buscador retains the top spot in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll even though he finished third to Laurel River and Ushba Tesoro in last Saturday’s $12 million Dubai World Cup.
Laurel River scored a spectacular 8 1/2-length Dubai World Cup victory. Ushba Tesoro ran second. Senor Buscador finished third, a half-length behind Ushba Tesoro in the Group I event.
At Del Mar in 2022, Laurel River and Senor Buscador also finished first and third, respectively, in the Grade II Pat O’Brien Stakes.
Laurel River smashed the record for the largest winning margin in the history of the Dubai World Cup. The previous record had been six lengths, which was what the tremendously talented Dubai Millennium won by in the 2000 renewal.
Senor Buscador now has held the top spot in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll for six consecutive weeks since winning the world’s richest race, the $20 million Saudi Cup, by a head over Ushba Tesoro.
Laurel River debuts on the Top 10 this week at No. 10.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 293 Senor Buscador (20)
2. 237 National Treasure (4)
3. 160 Idiomatic (3)
4. 154 White Abarrio
5. 104 Saudi Crown (1)
6. 92 First Mission
7. 87 Newgate
8. 75 Warm Heart
9. 64 I’m Very Busy
10. 41 Laurel River (3)
Though he did not make the Top 10, The Chosen Vron received one first-place vote.
By the way, when Laurel River finished second while making his stakes debut in the Grade III Lazaro Barrera Stakes at Santa Anita in 2021, The Chosen Vron won that race by 3 1/2 lengths.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
In the wake of Fierceness’ 13 1/2-length victory in the Grade I Florida Derby last Saturday, he has vaulted from No. 7 last week to No. 1 this week in the NTRA Top Three-Year-old Poll.
Muth, winner of the Grade I Arkansas Derby, moves up to No. 3 this week after being No. 6 last week.
UAE Derby winner Forever Young cracks the Top 10 this week at No. 8.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 299 Fierceness (18)
2. 250 Sierra Leone (9)
3. 235 Muth (1)
4. 182 Dornoch
5. 169 Catching Freedom
6. 163 Nysos (3)
7. 68 Deterministic
8. 59 Forever Young
9. 50 Timberlake
10. 45 Endlessly
Though he did not make the Top 10, Imagination received one first-place vote.
.svg){kind=logo}
