Scott Shapiro: $10K Hit & Split Belmont At The Big A Late Pick 5 Analysis | Saturday, May 11,2024

The Triple Crown action continues on next week in Baltimore, but there are still plenty of quality wagering opportunities to be had this weekend. My favorite of them is the late pick 5 at Belmont At The Big A on Saturday. 1/ST BET and Xpressbet offer a Hit & Split promotion, meaning $10,000 in free money is up for grabs with a high-quality sequence to attack.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 7: Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Nations Pride; 6 Greek Order
Backups: 5 Tawny Port; 2 Kertez

Forecast: The pace should be honest in this year’s Man o’War (G2) and there is little question the 1 3/8 miles event goes through Godolphin and Charles Appleby. The team sends out an extremely strong uncoupled entry led by 8-5-morning line favorite #9 Nations Pride. The son of Teofilo makes his 5YO debut after rattling off 3 of 5 in 2023, including a victory in the Canadian International (G1) last October. If he gets back to his best efforts as a 4YO, they are running for 2nd place. However, I am not willing to push all-in since he has not raced since last November and this certainly is just a starting point for the $2.5 million earner. His stablemate #8 Silver Knott holds the recency edge earning a graded stakes win already in 2024, but it came with a perfect trip off a slow pace versus a lesser group last month at Keeneland. I am willing to let the Lope De Vega gelding beat me, but not #6 Greek Order. The Juddmonte homebred has just two career wins, but his Stateside debut last month in Lexington is a toss when failing to hit the board as the public choice. The Kingman colt took a ton of money against allowance foes, broke slow, and had no shot given a race shape that greatly benefitted those towards the front end. At his 12-1-morning line offering he makes for an interesting gamble. #2 Kertez, #4 Harry Hood, and #5 Tawny Port all exit the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream Park where Tawny Port was hammered down to 3-5-favoritism, but struggled to find clear sailing until it was too late. He makes sense with a cleaner voyage, as does Kertez in his second North American try.  



Race 8: Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4 Mulkey
Backups: None

Forecast: I am all in on #4 Mulkey in this state-bred MSW event at six panels. The $450K son of Gun Runner got hammered on debut and was pressed all the way around the track before giving it up late to perfect trip winner, Lake Abankee. The Flurry Racing Stables filly is likely to take a big step forward and make her first trip to the winner’s circle for trainer Brad Cox.



Race 9: Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6 Ocean Atlantique
Backups: 2 Conman

Forecast: There does not appear to be a lot of early speed signed on in this two-turn allowance event over the sod, so coming from well out of it may be a difficult proposition. The coupled entry of #1 Belouni and #1A Danzingwiththestars will likely try to do just that. They are listed at 8-5 on oddsmaker David Aragona’s morning line, but might be vulnerable given the probable race shape. If you have contrarian opinions in other legs, I understand using them as a backup, but I will try to get the jump on them with runners expected to take less dough. #6 Ocean Atlantique should make the lead with Luis Saez aboard for a barn that is heating up over the past couple of weeks. In fact, trainer Mike Maker has won 11 of 36 dating back to the start of May. The American Pharoah gelding did not have a good winter, but did move forward in his allowance try at Keeneland last month and could have a pace advantage under one of the best front-end riders in the world. #2 Conman should also get a favorable trip just off the pace. The D J Stable LLC gelding could be keen off the bench, but should be in the perfect spot should Ocean Atlantique falter in the lane.



Race 10: Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8 Patty Cakes, 9 Bon Adieu
Backups: 7 Midtown Lights

Forecast: #2 Pitch Clock is likely to take a lot of public support in her second try off the bench for Chad Brown. The Commissioner filly broke her maiden at Belmont to close out her 2023 campaign, but was underwhelming in her 4YO debut after making an easy lead in mid-April. She is obviously capable of moving forward after shaking off the rust last month, but Brown runners are usually fit off layoffs and she is likely to get over bet. #9 Bon Adieu should have no issue making the lead from her far outside draw. She has hit the board in 7 of 9 at AQU and could get brave on the front end. #8 Patty Cakes makes her second start off the claim for Horacio De Paz. Look for Kendrick Carmouche to set up shop just off of Bon Adieu with a mare that has won 6 career races and hit board in her only try over Aqueduct main track. #7 Midtown Lights moves into the open company ranks after adding the blinkers and besting a field of eight in mid-March. All 3 of her career wins have come at the “Big A”.



Race 11: Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Bossy Jeans; 3 Rozay Summer
Backups: 11 Rainingatthebeach

Forecast: The Late Pick 5 concludes with a state-bred maiden claimer at two turns over the lawn. #3 Rozay Summer gets some serious class relief after debuting against open company special weight foes in Tampa in mid-March. The 9-5-morning line choice attracts Joel Rosario and raced against the flow in that first try, but sports a spotty work tab and drops in for a tag quickly for Christophe Clement. Some concerns, but also plenty to like. Her uncoupled entry mate #5 Once an Eagle is more difficult to get excited about. The Tonalist filly lost as the favorite in all three starts as a juvenile and makes her first start since last September. She is a fade, but #9 Bossy Jeans is not. As mentioned, the Maker barn is starting to roll and the daughter of Laoban gets a rider upgrade to Luis Saez. My top pick to close the day in the “Big Apple”.

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