Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Sunday Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Abhita; 1-Fast Giselle.
Backups/savers: 8-Spring Magic.
Forecast: Abhita is a two-time winner over the local lawn with a late-running style that projects well according to the expected race shape. Back on grass where she belongs, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride looks properly spotted to return to winning form in this starter allowance turf miler. H. Berrios stays aboard and knows here well. Fast Giselle stretches out for the first time, lands the rail, and seems certain to try gate-to-wire tactics. If she’s ever going to get the trip, it should be in her first try under these conditions.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Frazzled
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Frazzled has been away since December of 2022 but returns protected in a sign of confidence for trainer R. Baltas, who trained her prior to his suspension. A strong series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs should have her plenty fit. Best when held up early and allowed to kick home late, the daughter of Outwork has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and picks up top rider J. Hernandez, who has won on her in the past. She’s the 7/5 morning line favorite for a reason and in a five runner field can be used as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Final Storm; 3-Known Idea
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Final Stormis aggressively raised to the first level allowance ranks after a clever score in a maiden $50,000 claimer last month. Claimed out of the race by P. D’Amato and retaining “win rider” K. Frey, the son of Blame has plenty of room to improve for his new connections and in his first try on grass is guaranteed an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip from his rail draw. At 4-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a gamble. Known Idea is likely the quickest of the quick, especially with the addition of blinkers, and is strictly the one to beat. Overmatched when a fading fifth in the Echo Eddie Stakes on dirt last time out, the J. Sadler-trained son of Goldencents has numbers that can win, is the logical favorite, and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 2-Dramatizer; 6-Vulin
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: There’s nothing to trust in this bottom rung $10,000 claiming dirt miler for fillies and mares, so the best advice is the leave this race alone. Dramatizer once was much better than these, but she’s never won on dirt and this nosedive in class raises red flags. She can win but offers no value at 2-1 on the morning line (too many question marks). Vulin is slow on numbers, but they all are at this levels. She drops to her lowest level ever and may have found her friends.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Dandy Man Shines (Ire); 2-Aligato.
Backups/savers: 4-Crosby Beach.
Forecast: Dandy Man Shines (Ire) broke his maiden five races back last summer at Del Mar and has been entered in nothing but stakes races ever since, including the Kilroe Mile-G1 in his most recent outing, a not-too-bad fifth considering the strength of the field. This drop to the second level allowance ranks is a long time coming, and based strictly on numbers he can beat a field like this, so let’s put the Irish-bred gelding on top and hope he can regain his confidence. Aligato moves up a notch following a strong win over this course and distance three weeks ago. All three of his victories have been achieved over the local lawn, and with some help up front he should be heard from in the closing stages.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Crypto Craze
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Crypto Craze exits a monster starter allowance sprint in which he pressed a blazing pace before understandably feeling the effects when the pressure was turned on (the winner, Man O Rose, came back to romp in his next start). Back in a claimer but above his claim level, the M. Glatt-trained gelding is certain to face an easy pace flow today and if he leaves cleanly from the rail could establish the running and never look back.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Curlin’s Kaos
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Curlin’s Kaos looked hopelessly overmatched (59-1) in the Santa Anita Derby but really wasn’t embarrassed after being within range to the head of the lane before understandably weakening to wind up fourth, beaten eighth lengths, behind Kentucky Derby-bound Stronghold. He chased that same colt home in the Sunland Derby two runs back (fourth, beaten nine lengths), but in both races earning numbers that makes him a major player against this group. He’s back on grass today and graduated over this course and distance in January, so the surface switch is another plus. He’s 3-1 on the morning line and offers a gamble at that price.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: 3-Uncontrollable; 5-Irish Wahine
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Uncontrollable closed with interest before running out of a room in a similar state-bred first level allowance sprint earlier this month. With a bit more ground to work with today, the daughter of Upstart may be able to tag the leaders close home, but to be truthful she’s a bit too one paced to trust, as her failure as the favorite in two of her last five starts would indicate. On a positive note, J. Hernandez stays aboard, so we’ll put her on top, though at 8/5 on the morning line there won’t be much value available. Irish Wahine was claimed for $20,000 last time out by an outfit that excels with this angle, so improvement can be expected. She was third in the same race our top pick exits and with just a small forward move could pose the most danger.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 8-Disposition; 11-Upcharge
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Disposition, with a useful debut behind her in a fast main track sprint, switches to grass and is likely to step forward in what appears to be a moderate maiden affair for fillies and mares. The daughter of Palace Malice shows a strong, healthy work tab since her promising third place performance that produced a promising number, so unless there’s a good thing among the first timers she should be set to graduate. Upcharge has trained like the best of the newcomers and probably is worth including somewhere on your ticket. She’s not quick type but is likely to make some noise from the quarter pole home and it would be a bit disappointing if she doesn’t at least hit the board.
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